COP28 began as of November 30 while several countries are breaking unbearable heat records. Demonstrating even more that time is running out.
Meantime, the deck is stacked in the blue zone with more corporate interests than ever and the green zone, not scheduled to go online until December 3rd, will have its share of those interests as well.
Much of the activity has happened during the months and weeks pre-COP28. Since the corporate and state run gas and oil industry has a highly coherent and well oiled presence ( always dangerous as Noam Chomsky pointed out once) it will take digging deeper into signs of solidarity and effective networking to follow how more vulnerable countries, coalitions, and non profits fare during and following COP28.
As COP28 starts the good news is that a draft agreement regarding loss and damages was on the table early and was accepted on this first day of COP28. However, that is tainted by the shame of past unmet commitments. There is also no promise of renewals of funds. Hopefully, that will change with this particularly crucial COP.
Regarding loss and damages, some countries that have called for restructuring the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will not be happy with the choice of the World Bank where the US has a majority stake and that will continue to be an issue. That is partly eased by a greater presence from the more vulnerable countries where a managing board’s decisions will supersede those of the World Bank “where appropriate.”
The semi-good news is the nations finally honored a $100 million commitment. One might say better late than never, however during the period of delay, weather events signifying that climate change was ramping up around the world showed it is not enough for the most vulnerable countries.
As far as the elephant in the room - the choice of the UAE as host led by Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, head of the UAE’s national oil and gas company has been heavily criticized. No surprise really, the Middle East is not going to give up its product as recent documents revealed the intentions of the host to piggy back commercial interests on COP 28 which enter into the oil and gas business with different countries.
On the other hand, reported in the We Mean Business Coalition, ahead of COP28, 204 businesses representing over $1.5 trillion in global annual revenue sent out an open letter urging national governments to address a phase out the primary cause of climate change: burning fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the term “unabated” is a large loophole for the gas and oil and coal industries to fudge on “phasing out”.
The leaders of China and the US reached some point of agreement, particularly regarding methane, but then, both leaders are a no show at COP28.
The bottom line challenge of COP28 will be the efficacy of the challenge to the gas and oil industry which is determined to stay solvent. Will it be phase out (and soon enough to meet climate goals) or phase down (embattled semantics introduced by India at the Glasgow COP26), or some compromise that actually works)?
The mainstream media has made a lot out of dissension marking the beginning of COP28. For the average viewer It makes it more important to keep an eye on the prize. There are international interests in ascension. For instance, coalitions like HAC and BOGA defy the limitations of nation-states and have an important role to play in reaching the goals of the Paris agreement.
Politico https://www.politico.com/tag/cop28 will provide a running account of COP28 and behind the scenes looks offering different perspectives. A schedule of meetings are reported in the Deccan Herald.